{
  "research_date": "2026-10-22",
  "forecast_outcome": "Coinbase Exchange LTC-USD UTC daily candle close for2027-12-31, available after that UTC day ends; no current-day quote is the starting anchor.",
  "central_editorial_range": [
    60,
    120
  ],
  "scenario_cases": [
    {
      "name": "Severe damage",
      "lower": 0,
      "upper_exclusive": 30,
      "btc": 60000,
      "ratio": 0.00025
    },
    {
      "name": "Drift",
      "lower": 30,
      "upper_exclusive": 90,
      "btc": 120000,
      "ratio": 0.0005
    },
    {
      "name": "Recovery",
      "lower": 90,
      "upper_exclusive": 200,
      "btc": 150000,
      "ratio": 0.001
    },
    {
      "name": "Breakout",
      "lower": 200,
      "upper_exclusive": 400,
      "btc": 200000,
      "ratio": 0.0015
    },
    {
      "name": "Euphoria",
      "lower": 400,
      "upper_exclusive": 1000,
      "btc": 250000,
      "ratio": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "name": "Extreme tail",
      "lower": 1000,
      "upper_exclusive": null,
      "btc": 250000,
      "ratio": 0.004
    }
  ],
  "btc_grid": [
    40000,
    80000,
    120000,
    200000,
    300000
  ],
  "ratio_grid": [
    0.00025,
    0.0005,
    0.001,
    0.002,
    0.004
  ],
  "price_targets": [
    30,
    60,
    100,
    120,
    200,
    250,
    400,
    500,
    1000
  ],
  "reverse_btc": [
    100000,
    150000,
    200000,
    250000,
    500000
  ],
  "illustrative_ltc_supply": 79000000,
  "illustrative_btc_supply": 20000000,
  "halving_dates": [
    "2027-07-01",
    "2027-08-01",
    "2027-09-01"
  ],
  "pre_daily": 3600,
  "post_daily": 1800,
  "sales_fraction": [
    0,
    0.25,
    0.5,
    1
  ],
  "sales_prices": [
    60,
    120,
    250
  ],
  "monthly_fund_additions": [
    5000,
    10000,
    50000
  ],
  "synthetic_paths": {
    "steady": [
      60,
      80,
      100,
      120
    ],
    "blow_off": [
      60,
      180,
      50,
      120
    ],
    "early_stress": [
      60,
      30,
      100,
      120
    ]
  },
  "toy_weighted_forecasts": [
    {
      "price": 80,
      "weight": 0.55
    },
    {
      "price": 180,
      "weight": 0.35
    },
    {
      "price": 800,
      "weight": 0.1
    }
  ],
  "calibrated_probabilities": false,
  "base_assumption_box": {
    "btc_usd": [
      100000,
      150000
    ],
    "ltc_btc": [
      0.0006,
      0.0008
    ],
    "interpretation": "Chosen guarded-recovery judgment, already assumes BTC recovery; not calibrated probability bounds."
  }
}