{
  "scope": "Frozen venue-specific history plus chosen conditional scenarios; no fitted2027probabilities, causal claim, backtested trading strategy or execution guarantee.",
  "historical": {
    "dates": {
      "first": "2021-01-01",
      "last": "2026-10-21",
      "paired_daily_rows": 2120
    },
    "last": {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "ltc_close": 61.521,
      "btc_close": 84024.67,
      "ratio": 0.0007321778234892205
    },
    "annual": [
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "first_close": "2021-01-01",
        "last_close_date": "2021-12-31",
        "high": 413.91,
        "high_date": "2021-05-10",
        "low": 103.88,
        "low_date": "2021-07-20",
        "last_close": 146.15,
        "period_end_vs_intraday_high": -0.646903916310309,
        "ratio_return_first_to_last_close": -0.2648183647330985,
        "ratio_return_prior_dec31_to_period_end": null,
        "reset_close_drawdown": -0.723667267576616
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "first_close": "2022-01-01",
        "last_close_date": "2022-12-31",
        "high": 153.91,
        "high_date": "2022-01-17",
        "low": 40.32,
        "low_date": "2022-06-14",
        "last_close": 70.09,
        "period_end_vs_intraday_high": -0.5446039893444221,
        "ratio_return_first_to_last_close": 0.34186530075419364,
        "ratio_return_prior_dec31_to_period_end": 0.34067284659236785,
        "reset_close_drawdown": -0.7126322751322751
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "first_close": "2023-01-01",
        "last_close_date": "2023-12-31",
        "high": 114.98,
        "high_date": "2023-07-03",
        "low": 57.64,
        "low_date": "2023-09-11",
        "last_close": 72.81,
        "period_end_vs_intraday_high": -0.3667594364237259,
        "ratio_return_first_to_last_close": -0.5965411606989452,
        "ratio_return_prior_dec31_to_period_end": -0.5939315402723324,
        "reset_close_drawdown": -0.4821334272135187
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "first_close": "2024-01-01",
        "last_close_date": "2024-12-31",
        "high": 147.22,
        "high_date": "2024-12-05",
        "low": 49.9,
        "low_date": "2024-08-05",
        "last_close": 103.07,
        "period_end_vs_intraday_high": -0.2998913191142508,
        "ratio_return_first_to_last_close": -0.3468491097563309,
        "ratio_return_prior_dec31_to_period_end": -0.35875343410049354,
        "reset_close_drawdown": -0.4869891881986439
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "first_close": "2025-01-01",
        "last_close_date": "2025-12-31",
        "high": 141.14,
        "high_date": "2025-01-17",
        "low": 63.03,
        "low_date": "2025-04-07",
        "last_close": 76.73,
        "period_end_vs_intraday_high": -0.45635539180955076,
        "ratio_return_first_to_last_close": -0.21188090830807305,
        "ratio_return_prior_dec31_to_period_end": -0.20572837392755672,
        "reset_close_drawdown": -0.4960612691466083
      },
      {
        "year": 2026,
        "first_close": "2026-01-01",
        "last_close_date": "2026-10-21",
        "high": 84.84,
        "high_date": "2026-01-06",
        "low": 39.21,
        "low_date": "2026-06-25",
        "last_close": 61.521,
        "period_end_vs_intraday_high": -0.27485855728429986,
        "ratio_return_first_to_last_close": -0.18652504518284174,
        "ratio_return_prior_dec31_to_period_end": -0.16507166337820411,
        "reset_close_drawdown": -0.5133428639504407
      }
    ],
    "rolling": [
      {
        "return_observations": 30,
        "closes": 31,
        "first_close": "2026-09-21",
        "last_close": "2026-10-21",
        "pearson_correlation": 0.4571526112196741,
        "ols_beta": 1.3530583503546243,
        "intercept": 0.0010977490128723543
      },
      {
        "return_observations": 90,
        "closes": 91,
        "first_close": "2026-07-23",
        "last_close": "2026-10-21",
        "pearson_correlation": 0.6247023095519384,
        "ols_beta": 0.9504516628601501,
        "intercept": 0.00030282474210679717
      },
      {
        "return_observations": 365,
        "closes": 366,
        "first_close": "2025-10-21",
        "last_close": "2026-10-21",
        "pearson_correlation": 0.7153458757334377,
        "ols_beta": 0.9320331674607242,
        "intercept": -0.0004672136877539923
      }
    ],
    "trailing365_ratio": {
      "first": "2025-10-22",
      "last": "2026-10-21",
      "minimum": 0.0006173683585711685,
      "maximum": 0.00106379259854054,
      "median": 0.0007599921607927014,
      "empirical_fraction_at_or_below_last": 0.4410958904109589
    },
    "max_sample_close_drawdown": -0.8947978367241823
  },
  "models": {
    "central_editorial_range": [
      60,
      120
    ],
    "base_assumption_box": {
      "btc_usd": [
        100000,
        150000
      ],
      "ltc_btc": [
        0.0006,
        0.0008
      ],
      "interpretation": "Chosen guarded-recovery judgment, already assumes BTC recovery; not calibrated probability bounds."
    },
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        "name": "Severe damage",
        "lower": 0,
        "upper_exclusive": 30,
        "btc": 60000,
        "ratio": 0.00025,
        "example_price": 15.0
      },
      {
        "name": "Drift",
        "lower": 30,
        "upper_exclusive": 90,
        "btc": 120000,
        "ratio": 0.0005,
        "example_price": 60.0
      },
      {
        "name": "Recovery",
        "lower": 90,
        "upper_exclusive": 200,
        "btc": 150000,
        "ratio": 0.001,
        "example_price": 150.0
      },
      {
        "name": "Breakout",
        "lower": 200,
        "upper_exclusive": 400,
        "btc": 200000,
        "ratio": 0.0015,
        "example_price": 300.0
      },
      {
        "name": "Euphoria",
        "lower": 400,
        "upper_exclusive": 1000,
        "btc": 250000,
        "ratio": 0.0025,
        "example_price": 625.0
      },
      {
        "name": "Extreme tail",
        "lower": 1000,
        "upper_exclusive": null,
        "btc": 250000,
        "ratio": 0.004,
        "example_price": 1000.0
      }
    ],
    "matrix": [
      {
        "btc_price": 40000,
        "ratio": 0.00025,
        "ltc_price": 10.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 40000,
        "ratio": 0.0005,
        "ltc_price": 20.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 40000,
        "ratio": 0.001,
        "ltc_price": 40.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 40000,
        "ratio": 0.002,
        "ltc_price": 80.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 40000,
        "ratio": 0.004,
        "ltc_price": 160.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 80000,
        "ratio": 0.00025,
        "ltc_price": 20.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 80000,
        "ratio": 0.0005,
        "ltc_price": 40.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 80000,
        "ratio": 0.001,
        "ltc_price": 80.0
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        "btc_price": 80000,
        "ratio": 0.002,
        "ltc_price": 160.0
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      {
        "btc_price": 80000,
        "ratio": 0.004,
        "ltc_price": 320.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 120000,
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        "btc_price": 120000,
        "ratio": 0.0005,
        "ltc_price": 60.0
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        "btc_price": 120000,
        "ratio": 0.001,
        "ltc_price": 120.0
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      {
        "btc_price": 120000,
        "ratio": 0.002,
        "ltc_price": 240.0
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        "btc_price": 120000,
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        "btc_price": 200000,
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        "btc_price": 200000,
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        "btc_price": 200000,
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        "ltc_price": 200.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 200000,
        "ratio": 0.002,
        "ltc_price": 400.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 200000,
        "ratio": 0.004,
        "ltc_price": 800.0
      },
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        "btc_price": 300000,
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        "ltc_price": 75.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 300000,
        "ratio": 0.0005,
        "ltc_price": 150.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 300000,
        "ratio": 0.001,
        "ltc_price": 300.0
      },
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        "btc_price": 300000,
        "ratio": 0.002,
        "ltc_price": 600.0
      },
      {
        "btc_price": 300000,
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        "ltc_price": 1200.0
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    "hurdles": [
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        "target": 30,
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        "target": 30,
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      {
        "target": 30,
        "btc_price": 500000,
        "required_ratio": 6e-05,
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      {
        "target": 60,
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        "relative_to_last_ratio": 0.8194730579802019,
        "return_from_frozen_ltc_close": -0.02472326522650803
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        "target": 60,
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        "return_from_frozen_ltc_close": -0.02472326522650803
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        "target": 60,
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        "target": 60,
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        "target": 100,
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        "return_from_frozen_ltc_close": 0.6254612246224867
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      {
        "target": 100,
        "btc_price": 150000,
        "required_ratio": 0.0006666666666666666,
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      {
        "target": 100,
        "btc_price": 200000,
        "required_ratio": 0.0005,
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        "target": 100,
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      {
        "target": 100,
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        "return_from_frozen_ltc_close": 0.6254612246224867
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      {
        "target": 120,
        "btc_price": 100000,
        "required_ratio": 0.0012,
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      {
        "target": 120,
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      },
      {
        "target": 120,
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        "return_from_frozen_ltc_close": 0.9505534695469839
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      {
        "target": 120,
        "btc_price": 250000,
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        "target": 120,
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        "target": 200,
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      {
        "target": 250,
        "btc_price": 100000,
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        "target": 250,
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        "target": 400,
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    "valuation": [
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        "price": 30,
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        "price": 60,
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}