WITHDRAWAL CALENDAR — declared synthetic model, release 2026-10-26.1
Article: https://litecoin.watch/articles/buying-litecoin-weekly-the-cost-of-withdrawing-every-time

WHAT THIS RELEASE ANSWERS
With the same purchases, what changes when LTC leaves a custodian after each
weekly purchase, at calendar month-end, or when a declared coin threshold is met?
It measures fixed service-charge deductions, balances still with the custodian,
post-event custodial LTC-days and the peak credited balance before a withdrawal.
It does not estimate loss probability, provider quality or an optimal schedule.

FICTIONAL INPUTS
Thirteen $20 purchases on Mondays 4 January through 29 March 2027; the 2027
calendar fixes dates only. These are not historical prices or a 2027 forecast.
Execution prices: 80,100,64,80,125,100,80,64,100,125,80,100,125 USD/LTC.
All schedules contribute $260 and acquire 2.90500000 LTC before withdrawal fees.
LTC credit, purchases and delivery after a permitted withdrawal happen instantly.
No funding/trading fee, spread, slippage, tax, hold, confirmation wait or interest.
The closing mark of $125 is an assumption, not a simulated liquidation.

EVENT ORDER / TIME DENOMINATOR
The window is [2027-01-04 00:00, 2027-04-01 00:00): exactly 87 days.
For each date, apply a purchase at 00:00 if due, then a scheduled withdrawal.
Weekly attempts follow each purchase; monthly attempts occur at 00:00 on the
month's last day; threshold attempts follow a purchase when balance >= 0.8 LTC.
Each successful withdrawal debits the entire available balance and deducts one
fixed LTC fee. Failed attempts pay no fee. The gross minimum checks debit;
the net minimum checks delivered coins. Delivery must also be strictly positive.

Post-event closing custody balance is held for the next one-day interval.
Custodial LTC-days = sum(closing balance * 1 day). Divide by 87 for mean balance.
This is a declared time-grid measure, not on-chain coin-days destroyed, a risk
score or a loss probability. A weekly row with zero closing LTC-days still has
positive credited balances before those instantaneous modeled withdrawals.
Peak pre-withdrawal balance captures that separate quantity. Real processing
and network delays would change the residence times; they are excluded here.

TERMINAL POLICY
A requested final sweep takes place at the exclusive endpoint, 1 April 00:00,
after all 87 measured days. It is charged and must pass the same minimum.
It changes final wallet/custodial quantities but adds no earlier residence time.
A failed sweep leaves the tail in custody; no extra purchase, sale or special
below-minimum exception is invented. A 'leave' case makes no terminal request.

SCENARIOS
18 main cases = 3 schedules * 2 terminal choices * 3 minimum policies:
  minimum 0.1 gross; minimum 0.2 gross; minimum 0.2 net.
The fixed fee is 0.005 LTC per successful withdrawal.
9 sensitivity cases = 3 schedules with a 0.1 gross minimum and terminal sweep,
  at fees 0,0.001 and 0.01 LTC. The base 0.005 rows are already in the main set.
All fees/minima/thresholds are invented, not any provider's quotation.

FILES
inputs.json: every assumption and scenario.
summary.csv / results.json: identical end results in CSV and JSON.
daily-ledger.csv: 2,349 daily states across 27 scenarios.
events.csv:540 purchase/withdrawal attempts, including terminal/empty attempts.
analyze.py.txt: standard-library Decimal engine; no network.
verify.py.txt: independent Fraction arithmetic replay of every event and day.
withdrawal-planning-checklist.csv: blank private planning aid; no secrets needed.
sources.json: primary-documentation scope checked 26 October 2026.
SHA256SUMS: hashes of released payload files other than this checksum file/ZIP.
research-package.zip: those payload files plus SHA256SUMS, with fixed timestamps.

REPRODUCE OFFLINE
Put the files in one directory. Python 3.10+; no third-party packages or network.
  python analyze.py.txt
  python verify.py.txt
The first command checks that recomputation matches existing CSV/JSON bytes.
To create the exports in a separate copy of the folder:
  python analyze.py.txt --write
The independent verifier checks exact rational purchases/fees, daily balance
conservation, trigger dates, charged successes, minimum bases, custody-time
integrals, terminal tails and the equality of all purchase schedules. Hand-worked
anchors and invalid-policy/rounding cases are additional checks. Check counts
refer to deterministic assertions, not a statistical sample or success rate.

INTERPRETATION LIMITS
Wallet receipts and amounts still with a custodian must be reported together.
For example, a 0.165 LTC wallet gap can include a 0.16 LTC location gap; it is not all
fee savings. No probability or severity of custody loss is simulated. Self-custody
also has key, backup and operational risks not priced here. Fewer withdrawals
may create a different pattern of later spendable outputs, which this model does
not value. The service charge is not asserted to equal a miner's fee, nor do
these withdrawal groups claim to reproduce a provider's own on-chain batching.
Tax treatment, account restrictions and real quote availability require separate
checks. Research, calculations and drafting used AI assistance; no independent
external review, actual purchase or withdrawal is claimed.