Measuring Litecoin performance when you add or withdraw money

Research checked 22 September 2026. Methods and reproducible files are documented below. The hero is an AI-generated editorial illustration.

Litecoin starts at $100, rises to $120 and ends the year back at $100. One investor breaks even. Another loses $1,500. A third makes $150. All three can have a time-weighted return of 0%.

The difference is when they add or remove capital. This guide follows the three accounts through exactly the same hypothetical prices, then computes dollar profit, time-weighted return and an annual money-weighted return. The cash-flow CSV and Python calculation are included so every result can be reproduced.

Choose the question before choosing the percentage

These measures are not competing estimates of one hidden “correct” number. Dollar profit answers what you gained in currency units. Time-weighted return separates the investment path from external funding decisions. Money-weighted return reflects the timing and size of the investor's cash flows. A report should say which it uses and what assets its portfolio includes.

For example, selling LTC for USD inside an account is a trade, not an external withdrawal if both assets remain inside the reporting portfolio. Transferring that USD to your personal bank account is an external withdrawal if the bank account is outside the boundary. If you measure only the LTC position, the same sale crosses that narrower boundary. Specify the boundary before classifying transactions.

Three investors, one price path

Each investor puts $1,000 into LTC on 1 January 2025 at $100 per LTC, receiving 10 LTC. On 2 July, 182 days later, the price is $120. On 1 January 2026, 365 days after the start, the price is $100 again. We exclude fees, spreads, taxes, borrowing and idle cash. The dates define day counts; these are not historical Litecoin prices.

Investor A holds the initial 10 LTC throughout. Investor B contributes another $9,000 on 2 July and immediately buys 75 LTC. Investor C sells 7.5 LTC on that date and immediately withdraws the $900 proceeds. Each retains only LTC inside the measured account between those events.

The ending balances differ dramatically, but account size is not a return. B's $8,500 ending value includes the effect of contributing $10,000 in total. C's $250 ending value excludes the $900 already withdrawn. Comparing the closing balances without those flows reverses the meaning of the result.

Calculate currency profit first

Profit = ending value + external withdrawals − external contributions
A: $1,000 + $0   − $1,000  = $0
B: $8,500 + $0   − $10,000 = −$1,500
C: $250   + $900 − $1,000  = +$150

If the position is still open, its ending value is a valuation, not cash received. A midpoint price can be useful for consistent reporting, but it does not guarantee an executable sale of the entire balance. Use a clearly labeled estimated liquidation value if you subtract exit costs. Do not mix those two valuation conventions across investors or dates.

B's profit divided by total contributions is −15%. C's profit divided by total contributions is +15%. Those simple ratios omit timing. B's large extra contribution was exposed for only 183 days; much of C's capital stopped being exposed at the midpoint. A timing-sensitive annual measure will therefore differ.

Time-weighted return: cut the timeline at each flow

Value the account immediately before an external contribution or withdrawal, then begin a new subperiod immediately after that flow. Compute the return within each flow-free subperiod and compound the results. Do not count the contribution itself as investment growth.

First subperiod return = 1,200 / 1,000 − 1 = +20%
Second subperiod return = 100 / 120 − 1 = −16.666666...%
TWR = (1 + 0.20) × (1 − 0.166666...) − 1 = 0%

For B, the second subperiod starts at $10,200 after the contribution and ends at $8,500. For C, it starts at $300 after the withdrawal and ends at $250. Both ratios are 5/6, matching A's $1,000 divided by $1,200. Therefore all three time-weighted returns are zero.

Notice that +20% and −16.67% are not added. Adding them produces a false positive return. The GIPS handbook describes valuing portfolios around external flows and geometrically linking returns. We use that arithmetic here; this article does not claim GIPS compliance for a personal portfolio or for Litecoin.watch.

Money-weighted return: solve for the dated cash flows

Use the investor's perspective: money paid into the account is negative; money received back is positive. Add the ending account valuation as a positive terminal flow, even if the coins have not been sold. That terminal entry is a calculation device, not an extra transaction to import into your ledger.

XIRR finds an annual rate r at which the dated cash flows have zero net present value. The day-count convention used here is actual elapsed days divided by 365, matching the convention described in Microsoft's XIRR documentation.

0 = sum of CF_i / (1 + r)^((date_i − first_date) / 365)

Investor B:
0 = −1,000 − 9,000 / (1 + r)^(182/365)
           + 8,500 / (1 + r)^(365/365)

For B, the solution is −25.6617152678% a year. For C, it is +26.0948863872% a year. Neither number is the Litecoin price return; each describes the growth rate consistent with that investor's dated flows and terminal value. The period is exactly one year, so there is no additional conversion from an annual rate to a shorter holding-period rate in this example.

Our script uses a bracketed numerical search and checks that the residual present value is below $0.0000001 for each case. It does not call Excel. The near-zero numerical answer for A is displayed as 0.00%, not as a tiny negative investment loss.

Reproduce the result in a spreadsheet

Download the cash-flow CSV. Filter it to one investor and place that investor's three dates in A2:A4 and flows in B2:B4. Convert the date strings to actual spreadsheet dates if your import leaves them as text. Then use:

=XIRR(B2:B4,A2:A4)

For B, the three flows are −1000, −9000 and +8500. For C, they are −1000, +900 and +250. Some regional spreadsheet settings use semicolons instead of commas. Keep the dates and values paired when sorting. A terminal valuation on a different date changes the answer.

XIRR needs at least one negative and one positive value. More complicated cash-flow sequences can have no usable solution or multiple solutions. A software error or an implausibly large result should trigger a review of signs, dates, duplicate terminal values and the solution's residual; it is not evidence of an extraordinary investment result.

Transfers, fees and currencies: three common classification errors

Transfers: moving 2 LTC between two wallets inside the same measured portfolio is not an external flow. Its network fee reduces the holdings. If the destination wallet is excluded, treat the boundary-crossing transfer consistently at its value on that date. Use the portfolio reconciliation guide before interpreting percentages from an incomplete ledger.

Fees: for a net-of-fees result, include fees in the account's value path and actual investor outlays. Paying a commission inside the portfolio is an expense, not a withdrawal returned to you. Classifying it as a positive investor cash flow would remove a real cost from performance. State explicitly whether an externally paid fee is included in your investor cash outflow.

Currencies: choose one reporting currency for the entire calculation. Convert each external cash flow using its contemporaneous conversion or a clearly labeled historical reference, and value the endpoint in the same currency. Repricing every past contribution at today's FX rate erases part of the currency effect. Our net-return guide works through that separate issue.

A neutral currency converter can help check arithmetic, but a current conversion is not evidence of an old executed FX rate. Keep the dated bank or exchange record when available. Do not substitute today's converter output into an historical XIRR worksheet.

What the current portfolio tool does and does not calculate

The Litecoin.watch portfolio tracks transaction currencies, weighted-average acquisition cost, realized and unrealized results, and an explanatory breakdown involving price, fees and FX. Those figures should not be relabeled TWR or XIRR. The tool does not currently compute the flow-adjusted returns demonstrated in this article.

A weighted-average cost per LTC tells you how acquisition cost is allocated to holdings. It does not measure how long each cash contribution was exposed. Likewise, a chart of LTC/USD is a market series rather than your personal investment return. Keep the price chart, the holdings ledger and the cash-flow worksheet as separate records that answer different questions.

A reporting checklist that prevents misleading comparisons

Record the start and end dates, included accounts and assets, reporting currency, price source, treatment of fees, external flows and the definition of the reported percentage. For TWR, preserve valuations around every flow. For XIRR, preserve dates and signed cash flows plus one terminal valuation. If a required valuation is missing, label any approximation rather than presenting a calculated-looking number as exact.

When comparing with a benchmark, use matching dates and currency. A personal money-weighted result and a chart's price return can legitimately differ even with flawless execution. Neither automatically demonstrates skill or a forecasting edge: in this constructed example, the funding decision alone explains the differences.

Frequently asked questions

Can a flat Litecoin price still produce a personal loss?

Yes. In this example, adding most of the capital at the midpoint price of $120 produces a $1,500 loss when the price returns to $100, even though the start-to-end price return is zero.

Is XIRR a forecast?

No. It is a rate fitted to specified dated cash flows and a terminal value. It does not predict future prices or prove that the same rate can be earned again.

Data and method

Download the computed results and standard-library Python script. All prices and cash flows are synthetic teaching inputs; calculations were checked on 22 September 2026. The method references are GIPS for flow-separated compounding and Microsoft for XIRR's dated-flow convention. No historical-price backtest or investor survey is claimed.